The report that was presented at the American Meteorological Society convention in Denver said that progress was slow.
According to a new United Nations report, Earth’s protective ozone layer is gradually but clearly healing at a rate that would repair the hole over Antarctica in about 43 years.
Over 35 years after every nation in the world agreed to stop producing chemicals that eat away at the layer of ozone in Earth’s atmosphere that protects the planet from harmful radiation linked to skin cancer, cataracts, and crop damage, a once-every-four-year scientific assessment found that recovery was in progress.
Paul Newman, co-chair of the scientific assessment, stated, “We see things getting better in the upper stratosphere and in the ozone hole.” The report, which was presented on Monday at the convention of the American Meteorological Society in Denver, stated that progress is sluggish. According to the report, the average amount of ozone 18 miles (30 kilometers) above the earth’s surface will not return to levels before the thinning in 1980 until about 2040. In addition, the Arctic will not return to normal until 2045.
According to the report, Antarctica won’t be completely fixed until 2066 because the layer is so thin there is an annual huge gaping hole.
The Montreal Protocol, a 1987 agreement that banned a class of chemicals frequently used in refrigerants and aerosols, has been hailed as one of the greatest ecological victories for humanity by environmental advocates and scientists all over the world.
Action on ozone sets an example for climate change. Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, stated in a statement, “Our success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done – as a matter of urgency – to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases, and so limit temperature increase.”
Four years ago, there were reports of slight and more preliminary signs of healing. Newman stated, “Those recovery numbers have significantly solidified.”
According to Newman, chief Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the two primary chemicals that eat away at the ozone are found in lower levels in the atmosphere. According to the report, bromine, which is more effective at eating ozone but is present in lower levels in the air, has decreased by 14.5% since its 1999 peak. Chlorine levels have decreased by 11.5% since their 1993 peak.
According to Newman, the fact that levels of chlorine and bromine “stopped growing and is coming down” is “a real testament to the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol.”
Ozone hole levels, which reach their highest in the fall, are also influenced by Antarctica’s natural weather patterns. Newman stated that although the overall trend is toward healing, the holes have grown slightly larger over the past couple of years as a result.
In an email to The Associated Press earlier this year, Director of the United Nations Environment Programme Inger Andersen stated that this is “saving 2 million people from skin cancer every year.”
Emissions of one of the banned chemicals, chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11), stopped decreasing and began to rise a few years ago. According to Newman, erroneous emissions were detected in a portion of China, but they have since returned to the expected levels.
A few years ago, a third generation of these chemicals, HFC, was banned because it is a heat-trapping greenhouse gas rather than because it would eat away at the ozone layer. According to the most recent report, the prohibition would prevent an additional warming of 0.3 to 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The ozone layer in Antarctica could be thinning by as much as 20% as a result of efforts to artificially cool the planet by introducing aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight, according to the report.
